Ice

The area recently got nailed with another Ice Storm. This one, like the past two, was confined to higher elevations. This is weird. I live 2.5 miles from Cockerham's, where I work. At my house there was ice EVERYWHERE. All over everything, grass, trees, roads, mailboxes, etc. WHen I drove to work, 2 miles down the road there was NOTHING. Just rain. You see, I live on one of the higher portions of Carroll County(3000' - 32000'). Cockerhams is about 500 ft. (2600') lower than my house. I was shocked that 500 ft. made that much of a difference. We went from broken tree limbs at my house, to wet tree limbs at Cockerhams. I went to Galax later that day, (which is only 2500") and was shocked to find the same conditions as were at my house. Galax is in more of a sheltered valley, so this makes sense. It was weird to say the least. Power outages were common across the County.

Warm up next week or two, then coldy and storm for the last part of winter.

Summer?

A week after the Southern Apps recieved there first snowstorm of the year, the snow is still here. It has been DREADFULLY cold. Temps have been stuck in the teens since the snow fell, (0-5) at night!!. I love the snow, but I am ready for a warm up. One looks to come next week. We look to be entering another warm spell, but if you remember, this last snowstorm came after a warm spell. Don't be surprised if in 2-3 weeks we get another storm. I'm not saying we will, history just favors it. A trough will dig into the Western U.S. over the next 2 weeks. Whenever this happens, this sends warm, moist air in our direction, and deflects all of the storms NW of our area. I do suspect that late February and March will be very snowy, maybe even into April. If you remember, the past 3 Marches have produced loads of snow. Two of the past 4 Aprils have produced significant snowfall, as well. With so much cold air this winter, and the budding Southeast Ridge, a "BIG STORM", would be very possible in the U.S. in the Spring Months. The way the winter is going, (warm one week, bone chilling cold the next), this would only greater someones chances of a monster storm, as the seasons colide in future months. For now though, only cold. Warmer (40's) next week, but expect a return to cold the following week, and possibly stormy.(snowy!!)


As for now, I can't wait till Summer. I miss it already, even though the snow is beautiful. The cold weather has just been around seems like since the middle of October. A few more "healthy"snows ( like the one just experienced) would be nice, though.




Very Likely we see several more later this winter.

Long overdue, but thankful

It snowed about 4 inches. Than it changed over to sleet, and it packed it down to about 2" of crap. Hopefully no school tomroow? Keeping my fingers crossed. There is a chance of another storm this weekend, this one will be all snow. Right now were thinking only 1 or 2". It looks to stay east. Models have been trending west though, so keep your guard up.

New Snow Map

Colder storm.

Snow Map

Here it is. These are High, I wouldn't be surprised if no one gets above 3" of snow. Here Goes.

Snow Map

Confidence is high enough that I will issue a snow map. There is a chance things could warm up and give us an ice storm, which in all essence would be much worse than moderate snow. Things could still change, but here's my best guess. Snow starts around sunrise Thursday. It will should stay all snow till around 1 or 2, then may change to a mix. It just all depends on the arival of warm air aloft. This may take place ealier, or later. If it takes place earlier, look for lots of freezing rain. Later, you can bum up these snowfall amounts. I can't post my snow map yet but will when I get home. A general 3- 5" for SW Va.

winter weather.

notice I didn't say snow. I am watching a storm for thursday, but I ain't gotta clue as to what it will due. Early indications is that things will warm up enough to provide a sleet/ freezing rain/rain mix..just a nuisance type storm. There are many factors to this storm, and as you know early indications aren't usually right, so stay tuned.

Now I don't know what it is, but it just doesnt want to snow around here anymore. I am litterally praying that it will Thursday but I am NOT getting my hopes up.

Bummer

It won't snow, surprise surprise. The storm is going too far off the coast, and acutally looks like many portions, if not all of the eastern seabord will be spared.
This is strike one. In the coming week we are poised to see 2 more storms, one Wednsday into Thursday, and then another next weekend. These are 5- 8 days out, so don't go tell everyone it is going to snow. The point is we are in a storm pattern, with colder air establishing itself early this week, and even greater next weekend, these next to systems poise a bigger threat to be a winter weather make for the Southern Apps.

snow heres the lastes hpc prediction.

...EAST...MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A SIG EAST COASTWINTER STORM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. APPLCHNS/ FOOTHILLS SNOWSPOSSIBLE FROM NRN SC NWD INTO NC/VA/MD/PA WITH A MORE FAVORABLECOLDER FIELD FOR FROZEN PCPN EXPANDING EWD INTO THE VA/MD PIEDMONTAND EVEN EWD INTO THE NERN COASTAL AREAS MON. ATYPICAL/CLIMATOLOGICAL WINTER STORM PCPN PROBLEM FOR THE MID ATLC.06Z GFS OFFERING THE COLDEST SOLUTION BRINGING FROZEN EWD INTO THEMD/VA/DE COASTAL PLAIN MON AND TO THE COASTAL NORTHEAST. CONSENSUSOF CMC/ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST INCREASING CONFIDENCE OFA POTENTIAL HVY SNOW EVENT FROM SERN PA/NJ NEWD THRU COASTAL NEWENGLAND MONDAY.

if this takes place it would mean heavy snow for us.

Snow Map. Maybe this storm will actually hit!

After days of forecasting, this storm is now only 3-4 days away. With growing confidence in the GFS, and Euro, I have made a snow map. These are high end amounts, and may need to go down. Pray that the storm holds this track, to far inland could mean lots of ice, to far out to sea, could mean very little snow. Anyways heres my snow map. I do think if the track holds its course, place like Galax, Floyd, Boone, Sparta, Blacksburg, and Wytheville could easily pick up 6"+!!. Even places like Stuart, Mt. Airy and Roanoke stand a chance to see some decent snow. Keep your fingers crossed.

I'm not gonna say it

Ok. So every time it looks like we have white stuff coming our way, it ALWAYS misses us.
This week we are basking in the incredible warmth. A ridge has set up in the eastern part of the country, allowing for 70's as far north as Washington D.C.

This warmth is expected to exit us this weekend. With it's exit, comes a chance for a big storm, and I'll tell you why.
Earlier last week it was the Central Plains basking in warmth, all the way into the Dakotas. Tonight, a snowstorm, not major, but still snow looks to affect them. Thursday, we will be preparing for rain, while place like Chicago, De Moines, and Detroit, prepare for snow. Then Sunday, we will be in the 30's [hopefully] preparing for snow. The trend here is that with each storm, the cold air progresses. With Monday's storm in the Dakotas, it begins to push the cold air into the Upper Midwest.(St. Louis, De Moines, Chicago, Madison, Wi. etc). With Friday's storm in those places, it pushes the cold air into our area.

Storms tend to track along the boundary of warm and cold air, so the track of this storm will depend on the amount, and timing of the cold air. If the air is exceptionally cold, it could surpess the storm further east of us. If the air isnt cold at all, it could allow a track west of us. Right now, all indications are to pay attention to the weather for a signnificant winter storm from Asheville, NC all the way to the I-95 coridor of the Northeast. This WILL change, but at least be paying attention. I'll update as this storm draws closer, and if neccesary, will begin to post maps around Thursday, Friday.