nope

once again, this storm looks to cut to the north, leaving us w/ showery rain. agggh..

Update:

Right now, as of today, every major model is forecasting the storm to cut north of the area. If that were the case, we would be in for mainly rain. [SIGH] It seems like we havent had a good snowstorm here since 2005! We've had little snows. But the major storms, the ones that produce 12 inches of snow havent been around. ALl of the major storms have cut up through the lakes, or north of our area for the past two years!! I really hope this will change. Chances are no, but hey you never know.

Big Storm

A big storm is likely again this weekend. The exact track is still uncertain. I have created 3 maps w/ the three options and will post them this evening after the 12z GFS runs.

Flurries

Tomorow evening we should see some flurries. Maybe a dusting of snow. As for the big storm, I dont know when it will happen. I'll let ya know when it comes true.

anyways. heres a funny side of me.
I'm writing a song. Or trying to. I'll post it once i write it.

Good Weekend.

This weekend was great. It rained Friday. WE need it bad. Saturday, I had the oppurtunity to go to Charlotte for a youth student conference. Anyways, it was a great time. I hung out with my friends all weekend, it was a great bonding time. But at the actual conference, I learned something. Mark Matlock, is a great speaker. Anyways, he basically said that in order to grow with God, you have to be open to new ideas, and new ways. But most of all, he helped me identify what's standing in the way of me and God. I think it will help.
Anyways, I'll post on the "storm" later. It looks to be much of nothing, with it taking the 3rd option I presented in the posts below. Next week, though, it might just turn into something.

Ya'll take it easy.

Weather

Turns out, as a matter of fact, the storm I predicted last week, is still on stage for next week. The Wednsday through Saturday time period. Where is the question. There looks to be a fairly strong storm come through the Pacific Northwest this weekend. What happens after that is very uncertain. Right now there are 3 main options. These are just the most likely ones. There are many more, less likely ones.

1) The storm splits, sends a piece of energy to the Desert Southwest, and a piece of energy across the Great Plains, to the Great Lakes. The storm ejecting to the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the U.S., with the Desert Soutwest Storm Lagging behind it, in the southern branch of the jet stream. After the cold front comes through, it then rides that storm up the Eastern Seabord.

Effects: A rapid warm up will most definetly be felt in the Eastern U.S. this coming week. Highs in the 60's will be common across the Mid- Atlantic. This is because of the warm southwest winds drawn out ahead of the cold front. The cold front comes through,brings rain, and ushers in colder air. The second storm, lags behind this one, and rides up the coast, bringin rain to south of the Mason Dixon line. (It's just simply to early for snowfall south of that line, outside of the Appalachians.)

2) The storm stays as one, and quite simply ejects towards the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the U.S.

Effects: Cold front in the East, Snowstorm in the Upper Midwest.

3) The Storm stays as 1 whole storm, and stays in the southern jet of the jet stream, but instead of riding up the coast, ejects somewhere between the East Coast and the Great Lakes.

Effect: Heavy Rain for the Mid- Atlantic to the Northeast, and a snowstorm in the Great Lake Region.

Here is my early forecast.

The NAO is going negative. I will save what that is for another post. But basically all it does is allows storms to ride up the coast, and blocks them from going through the Heartland. When the NAO is postive, it is the opposite. However, the NAO going Negative isn't set in stone that it will happen, or when. This storm is still a week away, but here is my best guess.

The Storm will eject into two pieces. The first will go quick and fast toward the Great Lakes, Ontario Canada Region. There will be a cold front dragged ahead of this Low, and will bring rain and colder weather to the Eastern U.S. The Second low will lag behind in the Southern U.S. The Front will stall along the coast, and the low will ride up the coast along the stalled front. Snow will fall from the West Virginia Appy's all the way up the Northeast. The Major Cities, should be spared a major blow, but some snow is likely. It will rain south of the Mason Dixon Line. One thing I am worried about is a possible ice storm for the Souther Appalachians, with marginally cold air in place, it is a posibilty.

This will most likely change, so check back later. If the NAO goes and stays Negative, the pattern pattern in the East may be changing. I will post about that in a later post.

Snow is a No.

The fact of the matter was, that model was one run out of four daily. Things change, and as a matter of fact , still have the clipper coming through. Further to the North though. The cold air looks to retreat, and maybe, we might be going back to a warmer weather pattern. Not good for snow lovers. We have been stuck in this drought forever now, and it wont go away. We need a major climate change to break it. What is happening, is ther is La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. In shorter terms, La Nina is very cool waters of the central Pacific. Thus, most of the storms form in the UNUSUALLY warmer water, just north. All of these storms are directed to the NW United States and Canada, keeping the Jet Stream well to our North. Our main moisture source, the Gulf of Mexico, is virtually non existent. What remains to be seen is how long this La Nina takes shapes for. If it collpases, who knows what will happen. I will tell you this, though. It is unpredictable what La Nina will bring. Barring a few other Climate changes in Canada, the Jet Stream can be deflected not as far NW, then sout across the gulf. If tha happens it will greatly increases our chances of a snowy winter. I will release my winter forecast this week sometime.

Maybe

Maybe. Just maybe the snow I've been talking about will come true. Next Friday, another, second blast of cold air looks to come through. With the Jet Stream all ready being far south, a clipper system is poised to come through the mid-atlantic. Where at is yet to be seen, but if it does, dont be surprised for at least a dusting of snow here. This isn't the type of system we get big snows from, all though it does seldom happen. With no moisture source from the Atlantic or Gulf, it looks to be mainly light. You see a clipper comes from the north, and relies on the Mountains for Lift. If it were to pass over/slightly south of us, we would end up w/ a few inches of snow. If it were to pass to the north, just a few flurries. You see, with a low pressure system, the main precipitation sheild forms just to the north of the low. WIth warmer air to the south of a low, the atmosphere can only support showers. With a cooler, stable atmosphere to the north, it is more apt to sustain steady precip. Anyways.. heres the computer model that is sure to change for friday.

SNOW!!

This is to all people east of the Mississippi River. It will snow somewhere north of Alabama, and east of the Mississippi in the next 2 weeks. Big Snow. Next week looks to be the first real artic blast, with lake affect all the way down the Appy's. Flurries my way?? Let's hope so. Folks on the west side ( refer to map) could see a few inches. Especially up in WV.( Snowshoe, Call Mountain). As for Big Snow. There looks to be a MAJOR WINTER STORM in the eastern U.S. in the next 2 weeks. Where exactly is yet to be seen. I'll have further updates, but get ready for cold and flurries next week.