Love is a meaningful word

Enough said.

Alright so the weather.
Other than a little bit of ice, nothing new has happened. Nothing is going to happn until the stubborn "Bermuda High" breaks down. This is keeping us warm, but thankfully moist. As 2007 ends maybe this weather pattern will, too. There are some idications that this weather pattern will breakin into January, but there only preliminary thoughts.

Today, I had the great oppurtunty of talking to a man I don't even know. I jumped to a quick conlusion about this person, and failed to realize the magnitude of his problem. This fellow was calm and cool about it. He obviously knows his stuff, and has my respect.

On to another subject.

I leaned also in the past week, to step outside the box, and look at the full situation. If your in the box, that's all you see, is the dark, inside. When you step out of the box, you see the box from many different angles. You can pick up the box, flip it over, look underneath it. Heck, you can even open the box. Just a piece of advice.

Baseball season is coming up. Galax will win at least twelve games. Out of twenty.

Ice

Well the first major winter storm of the season has begun in the form of ice. As expected Ice is accumulating, especially on the elevated surfaces. This is only happening in the higher elevations. I drove to town an hour ago and it was only raining. So expect this to contiue for a few more hours. A couple inches of snow is possible on the backlash tomorow.

Ok. NO SNOW.. ( But Ice) .. Heres the map and explenation

Ok. So we get ice. I'm down with that. Here's my map and eplenation why. If you look Carroll County is in only a Freezing Rain Advisory, but very likely this will be upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning come Tomorow Evening. The only counties expected to get ice is the Eastern Blue Ridge Mountains, the western mountains are expected to stay rain. This is because the cold air damns up against the east side of the mountains. When a storm tracks west of us, it generally brings warm air up from the south, and drags it across our area. However, with the mountains in place, the cold air gets damned up on the eastern side of the mountains. Since cold air sinks, there is a VERY shallow layer of air at the surface. This ice storm will be very elevation dependent as you'll see on my map of Carroll County. 100 feet could make all the difference in the world. Roads I dont expect to be a problem, but tree limbs and power lines I do. With STRONG winds on the backside of the storm Power outages are a very strong possibility were ice acumlates.

Another aspect to the storm will be the snow showers on the back side. Expect several inches in the western mountains, due to the strong winds up against the mountains. A dusting to an inch are two is possible here, just depends on were the bands set up. I will post maps either later tonight, or early tomorow morning. If you live in Carroll Floyd or Patrick Counties and are above 2750 feet, be prepared for an ice storm tomorow night. If you live between 2000 and 2750, just light ice. Even though Patrick and Carroll Counties are not in an ice storm warning now, I expect that to change by tomorow evening, as the cold air will likely hold its ground.

Finally, one that looks to hopefully stick around.

Finally a storm. A real one. What precipitation type is still way to early to tell, but heres my best EARLY guess at a BIG storm riding up the east coast this weekend.
This storm.. has 3 main options as usual.
1) It tracks south of us, rides up the coast and explodes between Georgia and Hatteras, NC.
2) It tracks just west of the Apps. Putting us in a cool air wedge, with copiuos amounts of freezing rain. Transfers energy to the coastal storm, then dumps 3-6 inches of snow on top of the ice.
3) It rides south of us with just some flat, light precipitation.

Option 1 is our best guess right now. I'm thinking a major ice storm, with maybe some snow. I'll post a map sometime in the next few days.

Snow

Finnaly, at least a little bit. We woke with a dusting of snow. It snowed hard all last evening. But didnt stick much. Look for a warm up next week, but after that a big storm or two. This pattern could yield a big snow before christmas.

Most Likely Another Wasted Chance

Tonight through tommorow night will yield the best chance of snow we have had all season. A clipper, looks to pass just to our north, providing at least a few scattered snow showers. However, if this storm were to track 50 miles further south than predicted, we would be in line for several inches of snow. Something that is not likely, but I have seen it happen before. 2 years ago this exact thing happened, and at the last minute, the storm tracked further south than expected. We got under a heavy snow band and picked up 6 inches of snow!. This is possible but not likely. Most likely is a heavy squall or two. Maybe a coating, but thats not even likely. I'll update you later.

nope

once again, this storm looks to cut to the north, leaving us w/ showery rain. agggh..

Update:

Right now, as of today, every major model is forecasting the storm to cut north of the area. If that were the case, we would be in for mainly rain. [SIGH] It seems like we havent had a good snowstorm here since 2005! We've had little snows. But the major storms, the ones that produce 12 inches of snow havent been around. ALl of the major storms have cut up through the lakes, or north of our area for the past two years!! I really hope this will change. Chances are no, but hey you never know.

Big Storm

A big storm is likely again this weekend. The exact track is still uncertain. I have created 3 maps w/ the three options and will post them this evening after the 12z GFS runs.

Flurries

Tomorow evening we should see some flurries. Maybe a dusting of snow. As for the big storm, I dont know when it will happen. I'll let ya know when it comes true.

anyways. heres a funny side of me.
I'm writing a song. Or trying to. I'll post it once i write it.

Good Weekend.

This weekend was great. It rained Friday. WE need it bad. Saturday, I had the oppurtunity to go to Charlotte for a youth student conference. Anyways, it was a great time. I hung out with my friends all weekend, it was a great bonding time. But at the actual conference, I learned something. Mark Matlock, is a great speaker. Anyways, he basically said that in order to grow with God, you have to be open to new ideas, and new ways. But most of all, he helped me identify what's standing in the way of me and God. I think it will help.
Anyways, I'll post on the "storm" later. It looks to be much of nothing, with it taking the 3rd option I presented in the posts below. Next week, though, it might just turn into something.

Ya'll take it easy.

Weather

Turns out, as a matter of fact, the storm I predicted last week, is still on stage for next week. The Wednsday through Saturday time period. Where is the question. There looks to be a fairly strong storm come through the Pacific Northwest this weekend. What happens after that is very uncertain. Right now there are 3 main options. These are just the most likely ones. There are many more, less likely ones.

1) The storm splits, sends a piece of energy to the Desert Southwest, and a piece of energy across the Great Plains, to the Great Lakes. The storm ejecting to the Great Lakes drags a cold front across the U.S., with the Desert Soutwest Storm Lagging behind it, in the southern branch of the jet stream. After the cold front comes through, it then rides that storm up the Eastern Seabord.

Effects: A rapid warm up will most definetly be felt in the Eastern U.S. this coming week. Highs in the 60's will be common across the Mid- Atlantic. This is because of the warm southwest winds drawn out ahead of the cold front. The cold front comes through,brings rain, and ushers in colder air. The second storm, lags behind this one, and rides up the coast, bringin rain to south of the Mason Dixon line. (It's just simply to early for snowfall south of that line, outside of the Appalachians.)

2) The storm stays as one, and quite simply ejects towards the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the U.S.

Effects: Cold front in the East, Snowstorm in the Upper Midwest.

3) The Storm stays as 1 whole storm, and stays in the southern jet of the jet stream, but instead of riding up the coast, ejects somewhere between the East Coast and the Great Lakes.

Effect: Heavy Rain for the Mid- Atlantic to the Northeast, and a snowstorm in the Great Lake Region.

Here is my early forecast.

The NAO is going negative. I will save what that is for another post. But basically all it does is allows storms to ride up the coast, and blocks them from going through the Heartland. When the NAO is postive, it is the opposite. However, the NAO going Negative isn't set in stone that it will happen, or when. This storm is still a week away, but here is my best guess.

The Storm will eject into two pieces. The first will go quick and fast toward the Great Lakes, Ontario Canada Region. There will be a cold front dragged ahead of this Low, and will bring rain and colder weather to the Eastern U.S. The Second low will lag behind in the Southern U.S. The Front will stall along the coast, and the low will ride up the coast along the stalled front. Snow will fall from the West Virginia Appy's all the way up the Northeast. The Major Cities, should be spared a major blow, but some snow is likely. It will rain south of the Mason Dixon Line. One thing I am worried about is a possible ice storm for the Souther Appalachians, with marginally cold air in place, it is a posibilty.

This will most likely change, so check back later. If the NAO goes and stays Negative, the pattern pattern in the East may be changing. I will post about that in a later post.

Snow is a No.

The fact of the matter was, that model was one run out of four daily. Things change, and as a matter of fact , still have the clipper coming through. Further to the North though. The cold air looks to retreat, and maybe, we might be going back to a warmer weather pattern. Not good for snow lovers. We have been stuck in this drought forever now, and it wont go away. We need a major climate change to break it. What is happening, is ther is La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. In shorter terms, La Nina is very cool waters of the central Pacific. Thus, most of the storms form in the UNUSUALLY warmer water, just north. All of these storms are directed to the NW United States and Canada, keeping the Jet Stream well to our North. Our main moisture source, the Gulf of Mexico, is virtually non existent. What remains to be seen is how long this La Nina takes shapes for. If it collpases, who knows what will happen. I will tell you this, though. It is unpredictable what La Nina will bring. Barring a few other Climate changes in Canada, the Jet Stream can be deflected not as far NW, then sout across the gulf. If tha happens it will greatly increases our chances of a snowy winter. I will release my winter forecast this week sometime.

Maybe

Maybe. Just maybe the snow I've been talking about will come true. Next Friday, another, second blast of cold air looks to come through. With the Jet Stream all ready being far south, a clipper system is poised to come through the mid-atlantic. Where at is yet to be seen, but if it does, dont be surprised for at least a dusting of snow here. This isn't the type of system we get big snows from, all though it does seldom happen. With no moisture source from the Atlantic or Gulf, it looks to be mainly light. You see a clipper comes from the north, and relies on the Mountains for Lift. If it were to pass over/slightly south of us, we would end up w/ a few inches of snow. If it were to pass to the north, just a few flurries. You see, with a low pressure system, the main precipitation sheild forms just to the north of the low. WIth warmer air to the south of a low, the atmosphere can only support showers. With a cooler, stable atmosphere to the north, it is more apt to sustain steady precip. Anyways.. heres the computer model that is sure to change for friday.

SNOW!!

This is to all people east of the Mississippi River. It will snow somewhere north of Alabama, and east of the Mississippi in the next 2 weeks. Big Snow. Next week looks to be the first real artic blast, with lake affect all the way down the Appy's. Flurries my way?? Let's hope so. Folks on the west side ( refer to map) could see a few inches. Especially up in WV.( Snowshoe, Call Mountain). As for Big Snow. There looks to be a MAJOR WINTER STORM in the eastern U.S. in the next 2 weeks. Where exactly is yet to be seen. I'll have further updates, but get ready for cold and flurries next week.

Rain

Rain. We needed it. It has rained here since Monday. A persistant win off the ocean has banked moisture against these beuatiful mountains, and produced excessive rainfall amounts. A good example of how much the mountains affect the rain is this.
In my hometown, the Fancy Gap/ Woodlawn/ Pipers Gap area of Carroll County we have had roughly 10 inches of rain since monday. With the elevation of the mountains being 3000ft + easternaly moisture banked up against the mountains easily provided lift to enhance rainfall.

In my mom's friends hometown, in Grayson County, ( the border county to the west of us) they only recieved roughly 5 inches of rain since monday. They are the same elevation, and same mountain range, so why the difference? The heavy moisture get's squezed out in Carroll, where the eastern enscrapment is( the front range of the mountains). In Grayson, there is no eastern ensrapment. There is, though, a western enscrapement. Which leads to my next point.

Often in the winter, the wind blows in a cold wind from the northwest, off the Great Lakes. This runs up the Western Enscrapement in Grayson, and often produces light to moderate amounts of snow. ( in the western enscrapemtn area). To the east, (Carroll County) we are left with just flurries to a dusting. Occasionally, the winds will hit the mountains just right, to allow the heavier stuff to "jump" the western edge, but not often. I will try to post diagrams.

Shocked, Stunned, and Saddened

I returned from Blacksburg last night at 1:00am last night. I'm still in shock today, 24 hours later. My Hokies, DOMINATED the gameup until the 4:00 mark in the fourth quarter. When it look like we had put it away, with a DJ Parker interception with 5 minutes left, Lane went CRAZY. We proceded to pin them inside there own 10 w/ less than 4 and a half minutes left. That's when it changed. Bud Foster, our hailed Defensive Coordinator, changed his gameplan. Why he did is beyond me. He had absolutely SHUT DOWN Heisman Trophy Cannidate Matt Ryan for 55 minutes, so why change what's working? We changed to a prevent defense, one that only brings 3 rushers. With no pressure, he picked us apart through the air in 4 minutes. W/ a lucky onside kick bounce, they got it back, and once again scored a touchdown, to finalize the historic comeback. Lane Stadium was shocked. This serves as a big lesson though. I prime example. Everthing can go your way, you can straight out dominate, and still lose. Tech by far was the better team. If we had a hint of an offense, we would easily be a top 5 team. The ACC championship is now our goal. If we win out, we're in. Hopefully for a rematch w/ Boston College. If so, and if we win, we will still make the BCS bowl. Tech has lost to the top 2 teams in America, and still gets no respect. It's time to earn it.

Mike Part 2

Since Mike Cancelled youth, we decided to lock him in his house. Yep, we stole a gate, welded it to another gate, and fenced mike in his driveway. Because of the lay of these trecherous mountains, it would have been impossible for him to drive out , w/ going through his driveway, so we hid the keys in an easy spot.

Me and Austin did the dirty work, we stayed up till 1 in the morning, on a COLD January Night, working on the gates. We then hauled it over there, left it below the ridge, and set it up the next day. It was truely a work of art. See for yourself.

The fun we have at Mike's...lol..

I love these guys to death, lol. Mike is an awsome youth pastor, he's always there for us, it's only fitting, that we be there for him, though. We decided to him and ( SMOKIN HOT!!) Jenni, on a romantic dinner, for there aniverssary. We also decided to redecorate. lol.

My First Post

What's up, this is my first post so yea. I'm 16, and I live in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Southwest Virginia. I commonly go by T-Rex, its a nickname. I'm not gonna give my real name. I am absolutely in love with the mountains here, there so beautiful, and peaceful. I have some pics I'll post of the area shortly. But for now that's all. I will be posting about the life here in the mountains, the wonderful weather, and just random stuff, so be sure to check back in.